15 thg 4, 2025
Government Bonds: The total bidding value and winning ratio surged, driving the awarded value up by nearly 70% month-over-month and over 51% year-on-year. Meanwhile, bidding and winning yields remained relatively stable compared to the previous month. These developments reflect the Government’s successful efforts in mobilizing funding to implement its 2025 public investment and infrastructure development plans. The high winning ratio of 84% signals a strong improvement in market absorption capacity in March 2025—marking the most notable increase over the past 12 months. With robust market participation and the continued objective of maintaining a low interest rate environment, we believe the benchmark yields for Government bonds are unlikely to see significant upward pressure in the near term. Recommendation: With their near risk-free nature and high liquidity—albeit offering relatively low yields—this asset class remains a suitable investment channel for large-asset investors such as insurance companies, which may consider allocating a portion of their portfolios here in case of concerns over placing a significant amount of capital within the banking system. Therefore, a 10-year tenor (with high liquidity) and a coupon rate of around 3% could be a viable option for consideration.
Corporate Bonds: Coupon rates remained stable. We believe interest rates will continue to exhibit limited volatility in the near term, in line with the Government’s strategy to maintain rate stability in support of economic growth. Recommendation: The corporate bond market continues to attract investors thanks to its higher yields compared to bank deposits. However, the short-term outlook remains less compelling due to inherent risks associated with each specific bond issuance, particularly in the real estate sector. As such, investors should exercise caution when expanding exposure to this channel, closely monitor market developments, and select bonds that align with their investment objectives and risk tolerance. That said, bank-sector corporate bonds remain a relatively attractive option in the current environment.
Mutual Funds: The investment performance of equity funds and balanced funds declined sharply in March 2025. Recommendation: In the current environment, characterized by heightened volatility and unpredictable risks, bond funds offer a more stable return profile. However, despite the equity market experiencing a sharp four-session decline, the past two sessions have shown a notable recovery, driven by rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy. In addition, the ongoing implementation of the KRX trading system, along with positive domestic developments such as the acceleration of public investment, improvements in policy-making, and other reform efforts by Government agencies, continue to support overall economic growth and strengthen corporate business performance. Therefore, depending on individual risk appetite and investment objectives, each asset class may be suitable for different investor profiles.
Exchange Rate: The actual VND/USD exchange rate quoted by commercial banks has shown a relatively wide trading range, with buying rates around 25,400–25,600 and selling rates reaching as high as 25,910–26,182 VND/USD. In the coming period, the VND/USD exchange rate is expected to face pressure from global economic volatility and uncertainty, although the strength of the U.S. dollar appears to be weakening. Recommendation: The foreign exchange channel is considered a high-risk investment avenue, as exchange rate fluctuations are not only influenced by the aforementioned factors but are also heavily impacted by the movement of foreign currency flows and the actual demand of the economy—factors that are inherently difficult to control.
Bank deposit term rate: Since the beginning of the year, deposit interest rates across the banking system have remained relatively stable, with minimal fluctuations across tenors and among different banks. Recommendation: By nature, this is a low-risk channel with relatively modest returns and is expected to remain largely stable in the near term. Traditional bank deposits continue to be a suitable option for individuals and institutions with low risk tolerance amid persistent uncertainty.
Equity Market: Amid the peak of a broad-based sell-off from late last week through early this week (April 3–9), market panic indicators surged to extreme levels. However, following this period of heightened volatility, the market regained stability with strong gains in the last two trading sessions of the week, helping to restore investor sentiment after the announcement of a 90-day tariff delay by the U.S. Notably, the recovery signal led to a slowdown in liquidity this week as low-price selling pressure eased significantly, replaced by bottom-fishing inflows. Recommendation: The sideways trend observed over the past two years remains intact following the strong rebound in the index last week. As such, the preferred strategy is to hold positions and wait for profit-taking opportunities for investors who previously made exploratory entries near the market bottom. Upcoming market fluctuations may present attractive and relatively safe technical entry points for investors who have yet to establish a position.
Gold: Global gold prices reached an all-time high, surpassing the USD 3,236/oz mark. The surge was driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid elevated market volatility and growing expectations that the Fed will significantly cut interest rates to support economic growth. Recommendation: The formation of a steeper and stronger uptrend could accelerate the rise in gold prices during this period. Investors with existing positions may consider holding and waiting for profit-taking opportunities ahead of any potential de-escalation in U.S.–China tariff negotiation developments.
Real Estate: Decrees 75 and 76 have resolved legal bottlenecks for 343 projects in Ho Chi Minh City; Hanoi collected VND 6.8 trillion from land auctions in Q1; a land auction in Hiep Hoa District, Bac Giang is scheduled for April 26, 2025; Hanoi announced a rental price framework for social housing ranging from a minimum of VND 48,000/m²/month to a maximum of VND 198,000/m²/month. Recommendation: Investors may consider exploring the Kien Hung project and Vinhomes Wonder City (Hanoi).