9 thg 5, 2025
The bid‐to‐cover ratio has eased slightly compared with last month but remains higher year‐on‐year, indicating that market absorption is still robust. Both the bid rate and the awarded rate showed minimal volatility relative to the prior month. In the outright trading market, benchmark yields on the 5–10-year and 10–15-year tenors eased marginally after last month’s modest uptick; in the repo market, yields ticked up slightly but insignificantly. Recommendation: Given their virtually risk‐free nature and high liquidity, government bonds remain an ideal “safe haven” for large‐scale investors—such as insurance companies—seeking to park a portion of their assets outside the traditional banking system. Primary‐market demand continues to concentrate on the 10–15-year segment, where coupon rates hover around 3%, and on the 5–15-year segment in the secondary market, where yields fluctuate just above and below 3%.
In April 2025, there were approximately 20 private‐placement bond issuances totaling over VND 35 trillion, alongside two public offerings amounting to VND 4 trillion. Coupon rates remained broadly stable in the real‐estate sector but edged down slightly in banking. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that interest rates are likely to stay anchored in the period ahead, in line with the Government’s dual objectives of containing inflation and supporting economic growth. Recommendation: Issuance from TCB and VIC made up close to 58% of April primary issuance. VIC bonds paying roughly similar rate as last year (12% pa) but April bond lot had collateral whereas last year did not. TCB bond offering around 50bps premium to their 12-month term deposit rate. For risk adverse investors the TCB bond is a good choice.
Bond‐fund performance among the leading cohort remained below 1% in the month of April, marking a slight decline compared with the first two months of the year. After a sharp downturn in early April 2025 that weighed heavily on both balanced and equity‐fund returns, the market staged a modest recovery, partially offsetting those losses—indeed, top stock funds have even returned to positive 5-7% territory month-on-month. Recommendation: In the current environment of heightened uncertainty, allocating to bond funds can deliver more stable yields. Although equity markets came under significant selling pressure in early April, swift backpedaling on tariff policies and the launch of the KRX trading platform have injected fresh momentum and optimism. At the same time, strong domestic growth drivers should continue to underpin economic expansion and bolster corporate performance. Ultimately, investment choice should align with each investor’s risk tolerance and financial objectives, with bond, balanced, and equity strategies each offering distinct risk-return profiles.
Since early April through early May 2025, the free-market and Vietcombank exchange rates exhibited divergent volatility patterns and reversal points: on the black-market channel, USD traded within a wide range—buyers paid between VND 26,010 and 26,380 per USD, while sellers quoted as high as VND 26,480–26,500—reflecting both flexible retail demand and speculative sentiment. By contrast, Vietcombank selling price maintained a narrower band, oscillating between VND 25,610 and 26,190 per USD. Recommendation: Although the foreign-exchange market remains relatively stable overall, direct speculation on the FX rate carries high risk. While VND has weakened around 2% for 4M2025, regional currencies such as the Taiwan dollar has exhibited significant strengthening against USD in early May.
In the current environment—where 6–12-month term deposit rates hover around 4–5% p.a., and many banks reward large or long-standing clients with an extra 0.2–0.5 ppt bonus—savings still deliver a fixed, highly predictable income stream. Recommendation: Flexibly choosing maturities—from short-term (1–3 months) to medium-long-term (12–24 months)—allows investors to strike the right balance between yield and liquidity. For those seeking maximum safety, pairing non-term (on-demand) deposits—which ensure full flexibility of withdrawals—with longer-dated deposits to enhance returns is an appropriate strategy.
Trading resumed after the long holiday break coincided with the first week of KRX operations, which delivered encouraging signals—four consecutive sessions of gains since the week’s start. At the same time, foreign investors have returned to net buying for successive days, bolstering market sentiment. Recommendation: Vietnam’s stock-market price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) remains materially below its ten-year historical average—currently sitting one standard deviation below the mean. Although VN30 staged a modest recovery in April, this was almost entirely driven by Vingroup complex stocks of VIC, VHM and VRE. The three worst performers were FPT, VPB and ACB. Issues surrounding FPT relate to valuation relative to earnings outlook whereas ACB saw a reduction in its premium to peer valuation. The hit to VPB was related to stock overhang from proprietary trading position of securities companies. VPB looks oversold at this price and currently sits at two standard deviations below Bloomberg consensus 3-year forward P/B range.
Despite facing profit-taking pressure last week, gold quickly erased those losses and has resumed its prior medium-term uptrend. In our base-case scenario, prices may continue to trade within a wide range as they seek to retest the recent short-term high of $3,500/oz. Recommendation: The fundamental drivers behind gold’s advance remain firmly in place, so the medium-term uptrend is intact. Short-term investors should therefore prioritize long positions on any dip toward key support levels—especially while U.S. tariff negotiations remain unresolved. However, medium-term investors ought to note that, since 1980, gold has never gained more than 31% in a single year; having already risen over 33% year-to-date by reaching $3,500/oz, prices are unlikely to exceed that pace through year-end. As a result, we could see a prolonged sideways consolidation within a broad band over the coming months.
In April 2025, a series of policy measures and legal reforms – implemented at both central and local levels – have contributed to improved sentiment and raised expectations for a more favorable investment environment in Vietnam’s real estate sector. The markets surrounding Hanoi and HCMC saw a notable uptick in demand, particularly in areas directly benefiting from key infrastructure developments and flexible sales policies implemented by developers. Recommendation: Investor should seize opportunities in projects with transparent legal status, strategically located in areas benefiting from transportation planning, and with flexible payment policies. Homebuyer should prioritize projects with low upfront payments and extended interest support. However, it’s essential to assess the developer’s financial health and related infrastructure progress before deciding.