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- Bank Deposits: Bank deposit rates remained broadly stable in August, with a slight increase of 0.2-1 bps observed at smaller joint-stock commercial banks. 6-12 month tenors typically ranging from 4% to 5% per annum, and many banks offering additional incentives of 20-50 bps for large or long-standing customers.
- Government Bond: In August 2025, the State Treasury offered VND48.0tn (USD2.0bn) in government bonds, down 7.7% MoM and on par with August 2024, but only VND11.5tn (USD436mn) were successfully bid (-55.7% MoM, -70.5% YoY) at an average yield of 3.4% (+0.1 ppts MoM). The low bid acceptance rate suggests current yields are still unattractive relative to investor expectations. We expect the Treasury may need to raise yields in 4Q to fund budget spending.
Outright trading jumped 30.5% MoM and 99.0% YoY to VND295.9tn (USD11.3bn), while repo volume fell 24.7% MoM to VND93.5tn (USD3.6bn) but remained flat YoY. Investors appear to favor the secondary market for its flexibility and faster yield gains, reflecting active supply–demand balancing among financial institutions.
- Corporate Bond: In August 2025, 53 private bonds totaling VND50.0tn (USD1.9bn) were issued, up 71.3% MoM but down 18.9% YoY. Banks led with 56% of issuance, followed by real estate at 35.7%. The real estate sector issued VND19.3tn (USD734mn), tripling August 2024 and marking the highest monthly volume YTD. Average coupons rose to 6.3% p.a. for banking bonds (+0.4 ppts) and 10.4% p.a. for real estate bonds (+0.7 ppts).
- USD/VND: The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell further in August, continuing its year-to-date downtrend amid US debt concerns and uncertainty under Trump’s second term, as well as tensions with the Federal Reserve, raising doubts about its independence. As of August 29th, DXY stood at 97.77, down 2.2% MoM and 3.9% YTD. Despite this, USD/VND edged higher, likely due to commercial demand and capital outflows, with Vietcombank quoting 26,132-26,502 (buy-sell) and the free market at 26,650-26,720, up ~3.5% YTD.
- Equity: VN-Index set a record high of 1,711.5 points in the first week of September but failed to sustain this level amid intensified profit-taking near the strong psychological resistance around 1,700. Profit-taking pressure is expected to be stronger in the leading sectors, which have played a key role in driving the index higher in the recent period, while capital rotation is limited and only seeking short-term opportunities in mid-cap and small-cap stocks.
- Fund Certificate: As of September 5th, 2025, bond funds posted a median one-month return of 0.52%, while equity and balanced funds gained 11.51% and 5.72%, respectively, benefiting from August’s strong stock market performance.
- Gold: Gold has turned more constructive since late August, with the recent sessions marking a clearer upward momentum as prices regained the uptrend line established since late 2024. Currently, the key catalysts driving gold prices higher this month are the rising probability of a Fed rate cut in September and the weakening USD. However, medium-term investors should take note of the USD3,500/oz threshold, as historical data since 1980 shows that gold has never gained more than 31% in a single year.
- Real Estate: Several draft amendments to land and housing regulations are being developed, covering land valuation, land-use fees, social housing eligibility — all aimed at enhancing consistency, affordability, and stability in the real estate market. The establishment of a National Housing Fund is underway to create a stable, long-term rental social housing supply channel. Public investment disbursement up 49.1% YoY to VND409.2tn (USD15.6bn), fulfilling 46.3% of the annual target (vs. 40.5% in 8M24). Several key transport projects are accelerating, set to boost regional real estate market growth.

- Bank Deposits: Bank deposit rates remained broadly stable in July, with 6-12 month tenors typically ranging from 4% to 5% per annum, and many banks offering additional incentives of 20-50 bps for large or long-standing customers.
- Government Bond: In July 2025, the State Treasury’s total government bond offering value reached VND52.0tn (USD2.0bn), up 5.1% MoM and 9.5% YoY, with VND25.9tn (USD983mn) of successful bids (-12.4% MoM, -15.1% YoY). The average winning yield in July was 3.3%, rising 30bps MoM. Outright trading value fell 9.9% MoM but grew sharply by 56.2% YoY to VND226.8tn (USD8.6bn). Repo trading value reached VND124.1tn (USD4.7bn) in July, up 35.7% MoM and 5.6% YoY.
- Corporate Bond: July 2025 recorded 35 private bond issuances totaling VND30.7tn (USD1.1bn), down 75.2% MoM and 25.1% YoY. The banking sector dominated with 82.7% of total issuance value, followed by real estate at 6.5% and travel & leisure at 6.1%. Average coupon rates for banking bonds decreased 11 bps MoM to 5.8% p.a., while those for Real Estate bonds declined 58 bps to 9.6% p.a.
- USD/VND: In July, the USD/VND exchange rate continued to climb (ie VND depreciation), likely driven by commercial USD demand and foreign capital outflows. On July 31st, Vietcombank quoted USD/VND at 25,990 (buy) and 26,380 (sell), rising 3.1% and 3.2% YTD, respectively. In the free market, the rate eased slightly to 26,440-26,450, up 2.7%/2.3% YTD.
- Equity: The VN-Index is in a strong uptrend, consistently setting new records in both price levels and liquidity, indicating that this rally remains powerful and may continue to break new ground. The current positive performance is supported by confident buying interest in leading sectors such as banking, securities, steel, and retail, despite the strong return of foreign net selling pressure.
- Fund Certificate: As of end-July 2025, bond funds posted a median return of 0.58% MoM, while equity funds gained 9.03% and balanced funds rose 3.52%.
- Gold: Gold has shown little volatility over the past four months and has officially shifted into a sideways trend following an impressive rally earlier this year. The medium-term uptrend has ended as prices broke below the ascending trendline that had formed since late 2024. In the base-case scenario, gold is expected to continue consolidating within a gradually narrowing range, with the potential to form a triangle pattern before a new trend emerges.
- Real Estate: In July, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment proposed revisions to the 2024 Land Law, notably shifting land pricing authority to the State, reinstating the K coefficient, and allowing land recovery if 75% compensation is achieved. These changes aim to streamline pricing, improve fairness, and accelerate site clearance. Public investment disbursement accelerated in 7M25, fulfilling 39.5% of the annual target (vs. 27.8% in 7M24). Several key transport projects are accelerating, set to boost regional real estate market growth.

Government Bonds
Primary market: In May 2025, the State Treasury organized auctions with a total offering size of VND 53,000 billion (+2.9% MoM and +9.3% YoY) and a bid‐cover ratio of 53%, continuing to decline compared to the previous months (84% in March and 65% in April), resulting in VND 28,000 billion awarded (–16% MoM and +17% YoY). The government remains very active in issuing bonds to meet its annual targets. The slight drop in the bid‐cover ratio also reflects a somewhat weakened market absorption capacity.
The average win‐rate yield in the month rose slightly compared to the previous month but by an insignificant amount (4–6 basis points). We continue to believe that the level of government bond yields in the primary market will not fluctuate significantly for the remainder of the year, given efforts to keep rates low in order to support economic growth.
Secondary market: Outright transactions reached approximately VND 181,000 billion (+7% MoM and +28% YoY), while Repo turnover stood at VND 85,000 billion (+4.5% YoY and –1.51% MoM). In terms of yield levels, outright trades with 5–10-year maturities recorded a slight decline from the previous month to 2.6% p.a., whereas 10–15-year maturities rose back to 3.1% p.a., matching the same period last year. In the Repo market, rates have trended downward but only marginally, hovering around 3.9–4.0% p.a. over the past three months. Therefore, we expect government bond yields to remain stable, as liquidity is being strongly supported by the State Bank to keep rates at levels that support the economy.
Corporate Bonds
Primary market: In May 2025, there were approximately 51 private‐placement bond issuances totaling over VND 54,000 billion (+11.7% MoM and +79% YoY). Coupon rates remained stable in the real estate sector but edged up slightly in the banking sector after having declined last month to an average coupon of 5.8% p.a. We continue to maintain our view that coupon rates are likely to remain relatively stable in the near term, in line with the government’s aim to contain inflation and support economic growth. Moreover, the Government and relevant ministries have accelerated the completion of the resolution framework to remove obstacles for real estate projects, addressed requests from enterprises and localities, and encouraged the adoption of new policies under the Land Law, Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law to swiftly resolve legal bottlenecks, thereby supporting the real estate market. As a result, with the potential for the real estate sector to enter a strong recovery phase and drive heightened capital demand, tranches offering attractive yields (above the general level) will be issued in the market—albeit with their own characteristic risks. Nevertheless, commercial banks will remain the primary issuers of corporate bonds, attracting medium- to long-term funds to support credit expansion and adapt to market conditions.
Secondary market: The secondary market continued to exhibit positive liquidity, with real estate bond trades accounting for a sizable share alongside the banking sector. Total trading value of private corporate bonds in May 2025 reached VND 115,000 billion (+9.7% MoM and +8.1% YoY). Yields registered a slight decrease in the real estate sector while rising modestly in banking. Thus, May 2025 sustained a trend similar to the previous month, driven by market enthusiasm for real estate bonds (attractive yields and recovery expectations), contrasted by lukewarm activity for banking bonds in the secondary market.
Buybacks and remaining maturities: In May, corporates repurchased VND 21,000 billion of bonds before maturity (+72% MoM and –0.5% YoY). The remaining maturities scheduled for 2025 total over VND 137,000 billion, the bulk of which falls in Q3 at more than VND 76,000 billion. Of this, the real estate sector accounts for nearly VND 41,000 billion in maturities. Although a large volume of bonds is set to mature in the near term, expectations based on recent recovery dynamics in the real estate market point to a more optimistic outlook going forward.

Since early May 2025, the US–China trade negotiations have gone through three main phases: first, the 90-day “truce agreement” signed in Geneva on May 12, under which both sides agreed to cut supplementary tariffs to 10% on all tariff lines during the suspension period while retaining the previous rates (mostly 34%) to maintain “strategic leverage”; next, in early June in London, discussions focused on controlling rare earth mineral exports, with Beijing proposing to link the easing of export restrictions on these materials to a reduction in US AI chip export restrictions, while Washington continued to demand that China significantly increase its imports of US goods to narrow the trade deficit; and most recently, after two days of additional talks, President Trump announced that the new framework would impose a combined 55% tariff on Chinese imports (aggregating various existing and new rates), while China would maintain a 10% tariff on US goods.
On the US side, the 55% figure is the sum of three separate tariffs layered on most Chinese imports: (1) a 10% baseline reciprocal tariff on all Chinese tariff lines to offset the trade deficit even before accounting for other duties; (2) a 20% punitive “fentanyl” tariff; and (3) a 25% tariff under Section 301, carried over from the previous administration and primarily aimed at high-tech products and Chinese consumer goods.
Conversely, China agreed to cut its retaliatory tariff to 10% on all US exports during the 90-day suspension (lasting until around mid-August 2025); previously, Beijing’s baseline rate was 34%, with supplemental hikes peaking at 125% when including the increases on April 9 and 11, and the temporary reduction to 10% serves to stabilize the negotiations while preserving China’s “open-and-close” mechanism for this tariff in subsequent bargaining rounds.
Although some progress has been made on the agreement’s framework and high-level dialogue continues, key issues—from advanced technology controls to commitments on opening domestic markets—remain unresolved, reflecting the mixed nature of cooperation and strategic competition in the bilateral economic relationship.

Since early May 2025, the Fed has held two key meetings, both keeping the policy rate unchanged at 4.25–4.5% with a “patient and prudent” stance in light of complex inflation, growth, and external risks; the Fed emphasized that although inflation shows some cooling, it remains elevated and poses a persistent threat, while GDP and the labor market stay strong, so the committee agreed to maintain the current rate range and continue shrinking its balance sheet via tight quantitative measures, with most policymakers still expecting two rate cuts in H2 2025 but choosing to closely monitor the impact of the new US–China tariffs and the oil‐price shock on inflation before acting; indeed, according to Bloomberg, the Middle East‐driven oil price surge prompted some Fed officials to stress the need to “look through” energy volatility without ruling out the risk that prolonged high oil prices could further lift overall prices, thus bolstering support for delaying rate adjustments.
On the geopolitical risk front, since June 13, the Iran–Israel conflict has spawned multiple airstrikes on energy facilities, driving Brent crude up by over $10/barrel to nearly $78 before settling around $72–75; coupled with fears that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for about 20% of global oil supply—investors have baked in a risk premium, sending Dubai and Brent prices more than 5% higher in mid-June sessions, though the rise in physical oil was milder than in futures, suggesting that the physical market remains relatively undisturbed while paper trading reflects deeper concerns of wider escalation; overall, the Fed must weigh inflationary pressure from elevated oil prices against the need to support growth, even as oil remains highly sensitive to conflict developments and major-power foreign-policy moves.

NEW REGULATIONS ON PRIVATE PLACEMENT BONDS: PROTECTING INVESTORS, PROMOTING FINANCIAL TRANSPARENCY – RESHAPING CAPITAL‑RAISING STRUCTURES

In the discussion and voting session on 17/06/2025, the XV National Assembly focused on considering and approving the Law amending and supplementing certain articles of the Enterprise Law No. 59/2020/QH14, which had itself been amended and supplemented by Law No. 03/2022/QH15. The main content of yesterday’s amendments are to tighten the conditions for private corporate bond issuance: non‑public (ie unlisted) companies are only allowed to issue bonds when their total liabilities (including the value of bonds intended for issuance) do not exceed five times the issuing organization’s equity, as shown in the audited financial statements for the year immediately preceding the issuance; exceptions apply to issuers that are state‑owned enterprises, enterprises issuing bonds to implement real estate projects, credit institutions, insurance companies, reinsurance companies, insurance brokerage companies, securities companies, and securities investment fund management companies operating under relevant legal provisions. The law will take effect on 01/07/2025.

The global economy in 2025 continues to face a multitude of complex factors. Full-year GDP growth is forecast to come in below last year’s rate (under 3%). The Fed still maintains its policy rate around 4.25–4.50%, which constrains Vietnam’s domestic monetary-policy space. At the same time, trade tensions and geopolitical risks remain latent. On the supply-chain front, Vietnam is also under pressure to ensure full traceability of goods’ origins (having committed to tightening inspections against trade fraud). Vietnam’s economy sustains a high growth momentum but is confronting a range of new challenges. Priority measures include: continuing to implement flexible monetary policy to keep inflation low so as to support growth and prevent excessive exchange-rate pressures; accelerating the disbursement of public investment and improving the business environment to stimulate private-sector investment and attract FDI; diversifying export markets and sources of imported inputs to mitigate risks from global volatility.
In this context, Politburo Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW signed on May 4, 2025 regarding the development of the private economy marks a watershed moment (in terms of policy stance rather than economic direction) by officially elevating the private sector to the “most important force” of the economy, with a vision to develop the private economy rapidly, sustainably, efficiently and at high quality, positioning it as the principal driver of the national economy and as a pioneer in applying science and technology, fostering innovation and driving digital transformation, with the objective that by 2030 there will be 2 million enterprises operating within the economy, the emergence of 20 major private corporations capable of participating in global value chains, and by 2045 to advance Vietnam to high-income country status. Some key highlights of the resolution: (1) Simplification of administrative procedures and streamlined processes: cutting at least 30 % of time, costs and paperwork related to registration, licensing and post-licensing inspections; (2) Tax reform and financial incentives: abolition of the fixed-tax regime for business households by 2026 to encourage their conversion into registered enterprises, and corporate income tax incentives for research and development expenditures; (3) Equality with state-owned enterprises (SOEs): ensuring that private firms have access to incentives, resources and markets on par with SOEs, expanding SOE equitization and encouraging private participation in investment, governance and shareholding of state enterprises. The resolution provides extensive support for SMEs, including (1) access to and diversification of funding sources; (2) infrastructure, land allocation and reduction of occupancy costs; (3) enhancement of management capacity and streamlining of compliance expenses; (4) strengthening of value-chain integration; (5) promotion of long-term investment and capital protection; (6) tax and financial incentives, whereby newly established SMEs may receive corporate income tax exemptions or reductions during their initial years of operation; and (7) legal assistance, capacity building and digital-transformation support. Additionally, the resolution elevates the status of entrepreneurs in society through a targeted communications campaign and the enhancement of the legal framework for protection, dispute resolution and bankruptcy proceedings, aiming to ignite the entrepreneurial spirit and drive sustainable innovation.

An official policy statement of intent is often important to accelerate existing economic trends in the economy. The evidence we cite for this economic trend is outstanding debt in the banking system for the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector that has gradually narrowed throughout the period from 2010 to now, with the share of outstanding loans to SOEs dropping from over 24% in 2010 to only 3.6% in 2024 (trend accelerates after 2013 and the formation of the VAMC). This, under the credit growth steering policy supporting economic growth, shows that the State Bank is still focusing resources increasingly towards the non-state enterprise sector. In addition, we can also recognize additional signs that the role of private enterprises has held and continues to hold an important position in the economy, namely their deeper and broader participation in national‐key projects such as Long Thành Airport; Trung Lương – Mỹ Thuận Expressway and Mỹ Thuận 2 Bridge; Bến Thành – Suối Tiên Metro Line in Ho Chi Minh City; Nhổn – Hà Nội Metro Line; Bắc Giang – Lạng Sơn Expressway; Long Thành – Dầu Giây Expressway expansion project; Hưng Yên Bridge; Cần Thơ 2 Bridge; and Duyên Hải 3 Thermal Power Plant expansion. Private enterprises participate as BOT investors, EPC contractors, equipment suppliers, consultants, constructors, and operators after project completion. Their involvement not only supplements financial resources but also helps improve construction efficiency, shorten project timelines, and enhance the quality of these projects.

A high growth target is a major challenge when internal drivers, though still stable, have not been fully optimized. Therefore, enterprises need to proactively develop flexible business planning scenarios to adjust investment strategies, scale expansion, and business operations. The growth target is symbolic, reflecting the aspiration to enter a “new era” for the country, but rather than chasing numbers, enterprises should prioritize enhancing internal capabilities—focusing on automation, improving labor productivity, and developing product quality—alongside increasing localization to maintain export competitiveness. To become a reliable link in the global value chain, beyond competing on price, enterprises must reposition themselves by raising quality, building brand and service, and simultaneously promoting investment in green standards (ESG), R&D, and digital transformation to ensure stability and high adaptability. In addition, private enterprises must proactively engage in policy formulation, while improving internal governance, transparency, and strengthening connections with the policy system. The current institutional reforms—streamlining the apparatus, restructuring district-level government, and renewing the legal framework—are long-term in nature, so enterprises need to develop mid- and long-term strategies based on the assumption of an increasingly stable policy environment but remain flexible to respond to political changes, avoiding overreliance on any single policy. Finally, to achieve breakthrough growth, enterprises must develop operational capabilities within a new ecosystem—legitimate, transparent, in-depth, and oriented toward global standards—not only to consolidate their position but also to become a key driver of economic development.

MODEL FIRST ORDER EFFECTS OF TWO TARIFF SCENARIOS
No trade war is good for any country.
Even if the tariffs applied to Vietnam-manufactured goods entering the US at present are significantly lower than China’s, the uncertainty created on investment decisions is impossible to model. Our report models the impact of a positive outcome in trade negotiations consummated before the July 9th deadline and a negative outcome:
Positive scenario: 10% baseline tariff is kept beyond July 9th with a carve-out for electronics items at 0% tariffs
Negative scenario: 28% general tariff is applied with a carve-out for electronic items at 15% tariffs
Tariff situation at present
What the US currently applies on imports from the rest of the world is a patchwork of tariffs that includes pre-2025 tariffs, steel/aluminium/auto tariffs, Fentanyl tariffs, reciprocal tariffs and a base rate. Fentanyl tariffs were applied to China, Mexico and Canada. Vietnam does not have meaningful exports of steel/aluminium/auto to the US. Reciprocal tariffs of 46% were announced on April 2nd but there is currently a 90 day pause to give a window for negotiations. The base rate applicable to Vietnam is 10%.
Readers should note that the US has two significant carve-outs to the aforementioned regime:
Electronic items shipped into US do not carry any reciprocal or baseline tariffs but they do not escape Fentanyl related tariffs.
Goods imported under United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and this agreement covered 50% of Mexican imports into the USA and 38% of Canadian imports into the USA in 2024
The US administration is fixated with trade surpluses rather than the tariff levels of its trading partners
The placard that President Trump held up had a middle column labelled as “Tariffs Charged to the USA” and this was calculated by dividing the trade surplus of that particular country by the amount that the US imports from that particular country. Subsequent announcements from the White House have simply emphasized that the focus is on narrowing the trade surplus of countries singled out with reciprocal tariffs rather comparing tariff levels between singled out countries and what the USA applies to that country. This approach obviously disadvantages Vietnam. In 2024, Vietnam achieved a trade surplus of close to USD104bn with the USA
No country targeted with reciprocal tariffs has yet secured a deal
White House stated that 70 countries have reached out to try to cut a deal to lower reciprocal tariffs. As of the time of writing this report no country within that list of 70 countries has secured a deal.
Our modelling just forecasts first-order effects of two scenarios
We base our modelling on the following assumptions:
Ước tính độ co dãn áp dụng cho các dòng sản phẩm xuất khẩu/nhập khẩu được lấy từ nhiều tổ chức nghiên cứu khác nhau, bao gồm USDA, Cục . Kinh tế, Journal of Economic Perspectives và American Economic Review
Organic growth in exports from Vietnam to US are assumed to be 1% given that consensus estimates do not yet forecast for the US to enter recession. We add 0.5 ppt to this to assume some China production is transferred to Vietnam for production to avoid punitive tariffs currently applied to Chinese exports
Vietnam exports to non-US markets are assumed to grow at 2% relative to 2024 to reflect increase competition (as opposed to 11% achieved in 2024)
Our findings are…
Positive scenario: Export value to the United States is projected to exceed USD 112 billion (-6.2% YoY), with total exports to all markets reaching over USD 404 billion (-0.4% YoY).
Negative scenario: Export value to the United States is expected to reach only around USD 98 billion (-18% YoY), with total exports to all markets falling to just over USD 390 billion (-3.9% YoY).
Compared to the initial target required to achieve 8% GDP growth, the export goal of over USD 450 billion (+12% YoY) to secure a trade surplus of USD 30 billion remains a significant challenge.
Therefore, we will also continue to provide a set of assumptions to develop two GDP growth scenarios based on the expenditure approach:
Positive scenario: Total import value is expected to reach USD 390 billion (+2.5% YoY), based on the assumption that Vietnam continues to import inputs for production and re-export to other markets, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 13 billion. Private investment is projected to grow by 9% YoY (2024: +13% YoY), public investment by 10% YoY (2024: +16.8% YoY), and household consumption by 9% YoY (2024: +14% YoY), assuming unchanged margins of error. Under this scenario, we estimate GDP growth to reach 6.6%.
Negative scenario: Total import value is projected at USD 378 billion (-0.8% YoY), based on the assumption that declining exports will lead to reduced import demand, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 12 billion. Private investment is expected to grow by only 7% YoY, while public investment is projected to increase by 13% YoY—higher than in the positive scenario, assuming the government intensifies support measures for the economy. Household consumption is forecast to grow by 8% YoY. Assuming a constant margin of error, we estimate GDP growth under this scenario to reach 5.4%.

U.S. production continued to weaken, with significant declines in output and new orders due to weak demand and political uncertainty. Meanwhile, the service sector saw strong growth, driven by lower interest rates. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. A further rate cut of 50 basis points is expected by the end of the year.
China's manufacturing sector declined as new orders and exports fell, while the service sector experienced slower growth. Efforts to stimulate the economy through infrastructure investment and small business support faced challenges due to weak demand and the ongoing real estate crisis. European manufacturing continued its downturn, and green economic policies faced obstacles due to disparities in infrastructure and financial resources among countries. Japanese manufacturing also weakened, with declining output and new orders. However, business activity in the service sector saw robust growth, albeit at a slower pace.
Vietnam’s GDP growth in Q3 2024 is estimated at 7.40% YoY. For the first nine months of 2024, GDP is projected to increase by 6.82% YoY. We remain optimistic that strong production and consumption in the industrial sector, along with steady retail service growth, will drive Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.5% in 2024.
The CPI in September 2024 rose by 2.63% YoY, with nine groups of goods increasing in price and two groups seeing declines. On average, the CPI for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 3.88% YoY. The largest impact came from the housing, electricity, water, fuel, and construction materials group, which rose by 5.33% compared to the same period last year. Core inflation in September 2024 increased by 2.54% YoY, and the average core inflation for the first nine months of 2024 rose by 2.69%, lower than the average CPI increase. This was primarily due to the more moderate increases in food, essential goods, and electricity prices.
Overnight interest rates in September 2024 eased compared to the previous month, ranging from 3.21% to 4.59%. State-owned banks saw little change in deposit rates across various terms, maintaining low levels. Private commercial banks raised short-term deposit rates while keeping other terms stable, reflecting a recovery in credit growth.
In September 2024, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of $2.32 billion. For the first nine months of 2024, the trade balance showed a surplus of $20.81 billion. Thanks to favorable visa policies, international tourism promotion programs, and awards, the number of international visitors to Vietnam surged. Domestic consumption, production recovery, and strong tourism growth fueled the expansion of the trade and service sectors in the first nine months of 2024. The PMI fell to 47.3, but this disruption is considered temporary, and companies remain optimistic about future prospects.

In September 2024, the value of government bond auctions reached VND 44.5 trillion (-7.3% MoM; +187% YoY), with the winning bid rate decreasing to 62%. The total winning bid value for September 2024 was over VND 27.7 trillion (-28.5% MoM; +111.6% YoY). For the entire Q3/2024, the market recorded more than VND 96 trillion (+74% YoY). The interest rate for government bonds continued to show signs of rising during Q3/2024.
Trading value in September 2024 remained relatively stable compared to the previous month but still showed a strong upward trend compared to the same period last year, reaching over VND 146 trillion (-1.4% MoM; +35.2% YoY). Bond yields signaled a rebound after a previous decline.
Corporate bond issuance in September 2024 slightly declined compared to the previous month but still showed growth YoY. Overall, Q3/2024 recorded a total issuance value of over VND 134 trillion (+10.5% YoY), with most of the bonds issued by banking sector.
In September 2024, coupon rates for bonds issued by banking sector saw a slight increase, ranging from 4.9% to 7.9%. In the real estate sector, bond coupon rates rose to high levels in 9M/2024, with two bond issuances recorded at a 12% coupon rate.
In the last two months, the total value of bond buybacks by financial institutions amounted to over VND 11 trillion and over VND 9.7 trillion, with coupon rates ranging from 3.8% to 8.2%.
The total value of bonds maturing by the end of 2024 is over VND 74 trillion, with the real estate sector accounting for 33% (nearly VND 25 trillion). The total maturity value in 2025 is expected to reach over VND 239 trillion, with real estate making up 44% (nearly VND 106 trillion).

Recorded total bidding value in August 2024 reached VND 48 trillion (+104% YoY). The total value of successful bids was over VND 38.8 trillion (+78% YoY). The interest rate level for government bonds shows a slight increase in nominal rates, but a slight decrease in successful bid rates.
In July and August 2024, transaction values slightly decreased compared to the previous month but still saw good growth compared to the same period last year, reaching over VND 145 trillion and VND 148 trillion, respectively. Bond yields have shown a slight decline, with yields for the 5-10 year maturity range decreasing to 2.9% and 2.3%. Additionally, yields for the 10-15 year range also declined.
Although July 2024 saw a slight decline in issuance value compared to the previous month, it recovered in August 2024 and remained high, exceeding the levels of the first five months of the year, with the majority being bonds issued by financial institutions. We believe the demand for bond issuance by financial institutions will continue to increase for the rest of the year as credit demand continues to recover.
The average bond issuance interest rate for real estate companies recorded a slight decrease from the high average of 12% in April 2024. A slight increase was recorded for financial institutions, with rates rising from an average of 5.7% to 6.0%.
Financial institutions continue the trend of repurchasing bonds before maturity but at a declining rate. In August, financial institutions actively repurchased bonds before maturity with a total value of VND 9 trillion (-69% MoM; +9.7% YoY), with coupon rates ranging from 3.8% to 8.1% for maturities of 2 to 10 years. The total value of bonds maturing by the end of the year is over VND 81 trillion, with the real estate sector accounting for 34%, or nearly VND 29 trillion.