Banks will talk about how they focus on retail and invest in technology. However, what sets them apart? We have an attempt at estimating active retail customers of our 11 focus banks (representing 32% of market cap of the two listed exchanges at the end of 2024), ARPAC, and compare approaches to investing in technology. We look at general provisioning level, compare with Philippines and Indonesia, and discuss ramifications of adopting IFRS9. We tackle other issues like SME banking and cards/interchange.

1H25 Sector performance
- Net industrial land absorption in Q2 dropped sharply to the lowest level in recent years due to uncertainties over US tariffs. However, rental prices in Q2 were still at the same level as Q1 and posted YoY growth, supported by high occupancy rates across industrial parks and improved infrastructure.
Although land handover area generally declined YoY, sector revenue in Q2 only slipped 4.5% QoQ and still surged 21.6% YoY. Meanwhile, sector net profit jumped 26.7% QoQ and 85.1% YoY, driven by contributions from other business segments such as residential property, rubber, and providing electricity and water.

2H25-2026 Outlook
- We expect net industrial land absorption to improve compared to 2Q25 but grow at a slower pace than in previous periods, as investor sentiment remains cautious under tariff pressures. We also believe a shift of manufacturing facilities out of Vietnam is unlikely, given the insignificant tariff gap between Vietnam and other regional countries. In addition, industrial park developers have been diversifying their income streams through residential projects, infrastructure services, ...

- The Government is accelerating legal resolution and improving project approval procedures to boost supply, while continuing to refine the regulatory framework to ensure policies are aligned with market dynamics once implemented.
- Looking forward, new supply in Hanoi is expected to remain elevated, while HCMC will gain momentum from recently merged areas.
- With public investment being ramped up as a key driver of economic growth, real estate markets in areas with near-complete infrastructure are projected to become more active going forward.
- We expect the real estate corporate bond market to regain growth momentum after 2027, supported by lower funding costs and broader opportunities for funding diversification.
- Recommendation: We recommend BUY on KDH (VND46,400; +34.5%), NLG (VND48,000; +17.1%), PDR (VND28,300; +15.3%), CTD (VND98,300; +19.9%), and HOLD on VHM (VND109,300; +10.4%) and DXG (VND24,600; +8.1%).

Spot freight rates remained flat in 1H25 and are still on a long-term downward trend.In contrast, time-charter rates have tripled compared to early 2024 and continue to stay elevated.Meanwhile, container throughput across Vietnam’s port system grew +9.0% YoY in 7M2025, driven by the front-loading effect.
In summary, industry-wide PBT grew 14.2% YoY to VND2,146bn in 2Q2025.
Many institutions have continuously revised down their forecasts for average freight rates in 2025 and 2026, citing sluggish demand growth while fleet capacity continues to expand. In addition, cargo throughput at Vietnam’s port system is expected to decelerate following a period of “front-loading” activity.

* SOCBs’ “other income” line (aka recovery of written off debt) signal strength in the property market: among the three listed SOCBs, this item in 1Q25 was up 51% YoY and up two bps YoY as a percentage of the loan book.
* NIM story in 1Q25 was dismal: only decent NIM performance came from MBB and TPB, and in the not-so-bad category were HDB and VPB.
* No story with NPL movement in 1Q25: NPL rate across our 11 coverage stocks moved up 20 bps QoQ but Group 2 went sideways QoQ. NPLs exhibited the same 20 bps QoQ rise in 1Q24.

At the end of Q3/2024, the combined market capitalization of stocks listed on the HOSE, HNX, and UPCoM exchanges exceeded VND7,050 trillion (+18.7% yoy), while the VN-Index showed limited fluctuations during Q3 - moving within a narrow range - with monthly changes (both increases and decreases) of less than 3%. The average daily trading value on the VN-Index in Q3/2024 stood at approximately VND 16.6 trillion (-23.4% qoq).

By the end of 9M2024, PBT reached VND218,206 billion, achieving 74.3% of our forecast for 2024: In Q3/2024 alone, PBT amounted to VND70,143 billion (+18% yoy), surpassing our forecast of a 11% growth and outperforming Q3/2023 results (-1.6% yoy).

In this 40-page Industrial property (IP) report, we emphasize that now is a good time to pay attention to IP sector despite disapointing 1Q24 earnings results. We believe Vietnam is well-positioned to capture FDI inflows in next coming years thanks to 1) catching the movement waves of many electronic manufacturers from China +1, 2) more competitive cost structure compared to regional peers, 3) improved investment landscape when the tax issue was resolved.
With a bright outlook for the IP sector, we believe some leading stocks will be prime candidates to diversify investment portfolios.

In 2024, we forecast that listed banks' pre-tax profit (PBT) will grow by 15% year-on-year (YoY), reaching VND 293,650 billion. The credit growth target for 2024 is set at 15% and has been delegated to individual banks to maximize flexibility. Assuming banks utilize around 90% of their credit room, credit growth in 2024 is projected to reach approximately 14.83%. For loan to deposit ratio (LDR), banks are setting their own targets for 2024, with an average target of around 16%. However, some large banks, such as ACB, LPB, TPB, and VCB, have set LDR growth targets below the government's overall target. Net interest margin (NIM) is expected to recover to 3.75% in 2024, with larger banks likely to achieve higher NIMs. Valuation-wise, both P/E and P/B ratios for the banking sector are still below their historical averages from 2013, indicating that the sector remains attractively priced.